Two big weeks ago opening ceremony On the Seine, INSEE is moving ahead: national statisticians estimated on Tuesday that France’s hosting of the Olympic and Paralympic Gameswould lead to an additional 0.3 percentage points of GDP growth in the 3rd quarter.
“The Income Effect Ticket sales and rebroadcast right GDP will be around +0.25 points, to which should be added the effects, especially on economic growth. tourism (accommodation, catering and transport), as well as bonuses for civil servants available throughout the Games, with more “uncertain” economic effects, but could generate an additional quarterly increase of 0.05 points, the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Research shows (Insee) in its latest economic report.
Overall, GDP will grow by 0.5% in the 3rd quarter and by 1.1% in all of 2024. “Activity will slow at the end of the year,” adds INSEE, which forecasts a 0.1% contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter.
An impact comparable to the London Olympics
Thus, it can be compared with the impact on the economy of the Olympic Games (26 July – 11 August) and the Paralympic Games (28 August – 8 September). London Games In the third quarter of 2012, the British economy grew by 0.2-0.4 points of GDP, the total growth was 1%.
Although economists are often reluctant to compare the impact of different editions of the Games, INSEE envisions a parallel between the 2012 and 2024 editions: “London and Paris are the two main European capitals of tourism economies, developed with established urban infrastructure.” the statistical authority, on the other hand, rejects “less appropriate” comparisons with the Rio Games in 2016 or Tokyo in 2021.
Growth was driven most by ticket sales for the Paris Games (+0.15 points of GDP or 1.2 billion euros in revenue for the organizing committee) and broadcasting rights (+0.1 points of GDP or 750 million in revenue) is connected. , INSEE chose to celebrate in the third quarter.
Very timely support
Even if sales of tickets to the Games start in 2023, this is actually measured “at the moment of public consumption”, i.e. during the Olympic and Paralympic events, INSEE explains. The same logic applies to broadcasting rights. The boost to French growth from the 2024 Olympics will only be very temporary and will not be repeated in the fourth quarter, he forecasts.
If the event causes an increase in consumption in certain sectors (location recovery, transport), which will have a marginal impact on growth in the third quarter.
INSEE cites television buys, which sometimes tend to increase during major sporting events such as the Soccer World Cup. These purchases certainly support consumption, but they often come at the expense of other spending, which neutralizes their beneficial effect on growth.