Since the year 365, only 7 tsunamis have occurred in Spain, but experts warn that the biggest one will happen in the next 30 years.
UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) warns with 100% certainty that in the next 30 years, a tsunami with a height of more than one meter will occur in the Mediterranean Sea.
The Spanish newspaper “La Razon” reports that the danger zone is under the Alboran Sea, in the Averroes fault, which is located approximately halfway between the coast of Malaga and North Africa.
The earthquake could cause waves six meters high that would reach Spain in just 21 minutes. At best, coastal residents will have only 35 minutes to escape to the country.
How deadly can a Mediterranean tsunami be?
About 100 tsunamis have occurred in the Mediterranean and surrounding seas since the beginning of the 20th century, accounting for about 10% of global tsunamis during this period.
Although a magnitude 8.5 earthquake in 1755 caused a tsunami that destroyed most of Lisbon in Portugal, Cádiz in Spain, part of Morocco, and reached southwest Cornwall in Great Britain and Ireland, tsunamis are less common in the northeast Atlantic.
A tsunami of one or even six meters would not have the magnitude of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami that killed more than 230,000 people and displaced another 1.7 million, or the 2011 Japan tsunami that caused an estimated $243 billion (€225) in damage. . billion) damage, it would be an emergency.
“We are not expecting waves of 20 meters as in Japan, Chile or Sumatra, but on the contrary we are expecting waves of one to two meters,” Hélène explained to L’Observatoire de l’Europe Green at the beginning of the year at the Tsunami Warning Center in France (CENALT).
“It’s not just the height of tsunamis that’s extremely dangerous, but also the flow and ebb and flow — flooding that can damage beaches, harbors and streets. If it is a small port and the coast is very low, the tsunami can be more dangerous. »
A Mediterranean tsunami can arrive in just 21 minutes
Pascal Roudil, CENALT’s technical coordinator, told L’Observatoire de l’Europe Green earlier in the year: “Tsunamis can come quite quickly. » An earthquake on the coast of Malaga will cause a tsunami that will hit the coast within 21-35 minutes.
“In the western Mediterranean,” adds Roudil, “if an earthquake occurs near Algeria, it will travel across the sea in an hour and 15 minutes.
“Although our tsunamis are not as severe as those in the Pacific Ocean, waves do not need to reach 30 meters high to cause destruction and injuries. Even 50 cm can be dangerous for swimmers,” he adds.
What are the plans in case of natural disasters like tsunami in Europe?
France has a red alert plan for the first 15 minutes after a tsunami with CENALT, established in 2012.
According to Francesco Italiano, a volcanologist at Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, in 2022 UNESCO sent a mission to the Aeolian Islands off the coast of Sicily to investigate the risks of underwater volcanoes that could trigger catastrophic tsunamis.
In Spain, the National Plan for Civil Protection against Tsunami Risks includes an early warning system to identify underwater earthquakes and a plan that allows authorities to coordinate responses to ensure the safety of the population.
Spain’s first “tsunami ready” city prepares for floods
If a tsunami struck Cape St. Vincent off the coast of Portugal, it would reach the Spanish coast of Cádiz in 40 minutes, giving authorities and residents less than an hour to prepare.
Although the IOC rates the probability of a tsunami in Cádiz in the next 50 years at just 10%, the town of Chipiona in the region aims to become the first Spanish municipality to be “tsunami ready”: it has already organized simulated evacuation drills.
The exercises were part of the exercises organized by the ICO to prepare seven communities in the northeast Atlantic and the Mediterranean for the next tsunami.